Obama Surge in West Virginia - The Campaign's Take

Since I posted yesterday evening on the the Presidential polls in West Virginia, ARG has released a new poll showing Senator Obama ahead in the state by 8 points. In an average of polls, Real Clear Politics and Pollster now have Senator McCain's lead under 3 points. Both sites now consider West Virginia to be a tossup. This represents a stunning turnaround for Senator Obama, who lost the West Virginia primary to Senator Clinton by 41 points.

To get a closer perspective on the race in West Virginia, I spoke with Tom Vogel, Senator Obama's West Virginia campaign Director and the state party's Executive Director. He attributed the movement in the polls to voters taking a look at the issues and individuals running and deciding that Senator Obama would be best to deal with our economy. Vogel believes that Obama's strong performances in the debates and Senator Clinton's public support have been most important in convincing West Virginia voters. While Vogel acknowledged that there is racism in West Virginia, as there is everywhere else, he believes the media exaggerated and blew out of proportion racism's role in the primary results. He stressed that primary voters did not vote against Senator Obama, but in favor of Senator Clinton who, along with her husband, has a long history in the state.

Senator Obama has a small but active operation in West Virginia. The state has 6 Vote for Change offices with 30 paid staffers. While this is less than half number of offices, per capita, than in neighboring Virginia, nearby Kentucky and Tennessee have only 1 Vote for Change office between them. During the primaries, Democrats enjoyed a nearly 2 to 1 registration advantage over the Republicans. Vogel does not believe state demographics have changed much since 2004, but he does expect an uptick in student turnout as registration has recently picked up at West Virginia University and Marshall University.

The state party has been very aggressive in supporting its candidates. They are planning an 8 county bus tour for the state ticket. Senator Clinton will be in Charleston tomorrow to support a Congressional candidate and Ohio Governor Ted Strickland will visit Wheeling this weekend. The party has had success recently; it holds all statewide offices except 1 of 5 seats on the WV Supreme Court of Appeals and Secretary of State. It also has majorities in both houses of the state legislature. In a year of general dissatisfaction with Republicans, the strong Democratic party organization may be able to pull Obama to victory. When I asked Vogel what one thing Obama could do to boost his chances in West Virginia, he said a visit to the state would be most helpful.

I made calls to two McCain West Virginia campaign officials for comment, but my messages have not been returned. I will provide further updates if I hear from them, or either national campaign.

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What is going on in West Virginia?

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Wed Oct 8

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