What is going on in West Virginia?

I realize this isn't the most pressing election issue, but it's bothering me and so I need to write about it. According to Real Clear Politics, the poll average in West Virginia shows Senator McCain leading by only 5.7 points. The Pollster average has an even smaller lead of 4.6 points. I find this surprising considering that Senator Obama lost the West Virginia primary to a nearly vanquished Hillary Clinton by 41 points. During that primary, the media portrayed West Virginians as displaying blatant racisim. Senator Obama only visited West Virginia 3 times during the primaries and he has not been back since. His organization there does not appear to be very active either. The Obama campaign's West Virginia home-page has a message encouraging West Virginians to make phone calls - to Ohio.

So how do we account for the current state of the race in West Virginia? President Bush won the state by 13 points in 2004 and 6 points in 2000. How could Senator Obama have narrowed that gap without an active campaign in the state? Is this just a case of really poor polling? Perhaps the media depictions of racism in West Virginia were inaccurate? Maybe, in the absence of campaign activity, West Virginians are more responsive to economic events, which is tilting the field toward Obama.

I don't expect West Virginia to vote for Senator Obama in November. However, the fact that the race is as close as it appears shows how unpopular the Republican party has become across the country. If West Virginians really are reevaluating Obama we will have to reconsider their image in our culture and the extent that racist attitudes persist there.

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Obama Surge in West Virginia - The Campaign's Take

Gawk Squawk

Thu Oct 9

9